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Markets stabilized from worst premarket levels but still under geopolitical pressure. US-Israel strikes hit 1,000+ Iranian targets, Iran retaliates with missiles on Gulf bases. Strait of Hormuz effective closure driving oil spike.
The Numbers (11 AM ET)
• S&P 500: 6,828 (-0.74%)
• Nasdaq: 22,505 (-0.72%)
• Dow: 48,541 (-0.89%)
• VIX: 22.06 (elevated)
• Brent: $78-82 (+8-13%)
• Gold: Record highs (safe-haven)
What's Moving
• Oil majors rallying — Hormuz shutdown fears pricing 20% global supply risk
• Financials crushed — AmEx -8%, Goldman -7.6% on private credit stress
• Dell +21.8% — Record AI server demand, largest buyback
• Nvidia -4.1%, Apple -3.2% — AI capex doubts after rates stay higher
Geopolitics
Operation Epic Fury (Feb 28): 1,000+ strikes on Iranian military. Hormuz traffic down 40-70%. 240+ tankers stalled. If closure persists, oil hits $100+ and recession odds spike.
The Take
Market off worst levels but Hormuz remains the key variable. Oil at $80 manageable. Oil at $100 changes everything — stagflation scenario. Watch S&P 6,750 for capitulation.
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